Heating oil price forecast for winter 2026-27
The EIA forecasts $5.265 a gallon on average for heating oil from November to March, against $3.940 last winter.
EIA forecast for heating oil, winter 26-27, U.S. average
$5.265/gal
Average residential price forecast for November to March, against $3.940 last winter (+33.6 %).
| Gallons an average home burns (normal winter) | 402 gallons |
| Winter bill, normal forecast | $2,115 |
| Winter bill, warmer scenario | $1,974 |
| Winter bill, colder scenario | $2,332 |
| Latest weekly survey price for comparison | $6.190 (October 19, 2026) |
EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook of October 2026, Table WF01. A forecast, revised each month; heating oil is forecast for the U.S. only.
Compiled by Radif Partners · Where the prices come from · EIA weekly survey of October 19, 2026, excluding taxes · no dealer listed
The Energy Information Administration's Winter Fuels Outlook, published with its Short-Term Energy Outlook of October 2026, forecasts an average residential heating oil price of $5.265 a gallon for November 2026 to March 2027, up 34 % from last winter's $3.940. With a normal winter the average oil-heated household would burn 402 gallons and spend $2,115, up 21 % on the year; a colder winter would take the bill to $2,332, a warmer one to $1,974. For propane the EIA forecasts $2.520 a gallon nationwide and $3.277 in the Northeast. The weekly survey of October 19, 2026 puts heating oil at $6.190, so the season has opened above the forecast average. A forecast is revised every month; the figures here are the EIA's, not ours.
The forecast in one table
| 24-25 | 25-26 | 26-27 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heating oil price, U.S. | $3.646 | $3.940 | $5.265 |
| Gallons per household | 416 | 443 | 402 |
| Winter bill per household | $1,515 | $1,745 | $2,115 |
| Propane price, U.S. | $2.637 | $2.583 | $2.520 |
| Propane bill per household, U.S. | $1,324 | $1,287 | $1,246 |
| Heating degree days, Northeast | 4,509 | 4,923 | 4,331 |
Where the forecast comes from
The winter outlook is part of the EIA's monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Prices are nominal; consumption per household comes from the EIA's 2020 Residential Energy Consumption Survey, corrected for actual and projected heating degree days (Table WF01). The forecast covers the five months from November through March, and the EIA publishes a warmer case and a colder case for weather 10 % milder or 10 % colder than its base case in the Northeast.
Heating oil gets a single U.S. forecast; the EIA counts 4,134,422 oil-heated households, 3,388,280 of them in the Northeast. Propane gets a forecast for the Northeast, the Midwest and the South, the regions where most of the 6,360,826 propane-heated households live.
Forecast by fuel and region
EIA forecast for propane, winter 26-27, Midwest
$2.036/gal
| Gallons an average home burns (normal winter) | 641 gallons |
| Winter bill, normal forecast | $1,305 |
| Winter bill, warmer scenario | $1,194 |
| Winter bill, colder scenario | $1,473 |
Propane by region
| Region | Forecast price | Last winter | Gallons per household | Winter bill, normal | Winter bill, colder |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northeast | $3.277 | $3.473 | 515 | $1,687 | $1,868 |
| Midwest | $2.036 | $2.105 | 641 | $1,305 | $1,473 |
| South | $3.186 | $3.205 | 365 | $1,164 | $1,269 |
| U.S. average | $2.520 | $2.583 | 494 | $1,246 | $1,385 |
The weather behind the numbers
Gallons follow heating degree days, and the EIA's three cases differ only by weather. For the Northeast it expects 4,331 degree days from November to March in its base case, against 4,923 last winter, which is why the gallons per oil-heated household fall to 402 from 443. A winter as cold as the colder case would take the Northeast to 4,764 degree days and an oil-heated household to 436 gallons. Price and weather add up: a dear gallon in a cold winter is the case that strains a budget most.
From the forecast to your bill
A national forecast is a starting point. Your state's weekly price can sit well above or below the U.S. average, and your winter can be colder or milder than the nation's. The winter budget applies this week's price in your state to your state's degree days and also shows the cost at the forecast price. The lock-in check uses the forecast as one more yardstick for a fixed-price offer: a locked price below the forecast average looks better than one above it, though the forecast itself can miss.
How far to trust it
The EIA revises its outlook each month as prices and weather come in, so the figure for 26-27 will move before the winter ends. The "25-26" column of the table shows last winter as the EIA now reports it. Treat the forecast as the most informed public estimate available, and the weekly survey as the reality check: each Wednesday the state table shows where prices actually are.