Lock in a heating oil price or wait?
In 7 of the last 13 winters, the U.S. heating oil price from November to March averaged above its mid-October level.
Locking 450 gallons of heating oil at $6.115
Saves $0
against paying this week's Massachusetts average ($6.115) all winter. The lock pays off when the winter averages above $6.115.
| Break-even winter price | $6.115 |
| Past winters where the November-March average beat the mid-October price | 7 of 13 |
| Median change, mid-October to winter average | +6.4 % |
| Past winters, replayed from today's price, that end above $6.115 | 7 of 13 |
History is not a forecast: it shows how often a price set in October has turned out cheap. EIA weekly survey of October 19, 2026, excluding taxes. Next release October 28, 2026.
| Winter | Mid-October | Nov-Mar average | Change | Today replayed | Lock vs. wait |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | $3.561 | $4.221 | +18.5 % | $7.248 | +$510 |
| 2024-25 | $3.524 | $3.751 | +6.4 % | $6.509 | +$177 |
| 2023-24 | $4.264 | $4.107 | -3.7 % | $5.890 | -$101 |
| 2022-23 | $5.756 | $4.682 | -18.7 % | $4.974 | -$513 |
| 2021-22 | $3.310 | $3.822 | +15.5 % | $7.061 | +$426 |
| 2020-21 | $2.080 | $2.512 | +20.8 % | $7.385 | +$572 |
| 2019-20 | $2.929 | $2.857 | -2.5 % | $5.965 | -$68 |
| 2018-19 | $3.356 | $3.251 | -3.1 % | $5.924 | -$86 |
| 2017-18 | $2.665 | $3.061 | +14.9 % | $7.024 | +$409 |
| 2016-17 | $2.407 | $2.610 | +8.4 % | $6.631 | +$232 |
| 2015-16 | $2.433 | $2.211 | -9.1 % | $5.557 | -$251 |
| 2014-15 | $3.537 | $3.131 | -11.5 % | $5.413 | -$316 |
| 2013-14 | $3.807 | $4.049 | +6.4 % | $6.504 | +$175 |
Compiled by Radif Partners · Where the prices come from · EIA weekly survey of October 19, 2026, excluding taxes · no dealer listed
A fixed-price or prebuy contract pays off when the winter's average price ends above the price you lock. The federal survey lets you check how often that has happened. For heating oil, the U.S. winter average ended above the mid-October price in 7 of the 13 winters since 2013-14, with a median change of 4.9 %; the swings ran from -18 % in 2022-23 to 19 % in 2020-21. For propane the winter beat October in 12 of 13 seasons, median 6.2 %. History is not a forecast, but it frames the bet. The calculator takes the price your dealer offers, the gallons you commit to and any fee, then tells you what the lock saves or costs at this week's $6.190 U.S. average and in each past winter replayed from today's price. It also gives the break-even price: the winter average above which the contract comes out ahead.
Three kinds of contract
- Fixed price. You agree a price per gallon for the season, sometimes for a set number of gallons. If the market falls, you still pay the fixed price.
- Prebuy. You pay in advance for a number of gallons at a set price. Gallons left unused at the end of the season may or may not carry over; the contract says which.
- Price cap. You pay the market price up to a ceiling, and the ceiling above it. Caps usually cost a fee.
The calculator handles all three with the same arithmetic: gallons × (market price − your price) − fee. For a cap, enter the cap as the price and remember that you keep the gain when the market ends lower, which the calculator does not count.
What history says, state by state
| State | This week | Winters above mid-October | Median change | Largest rise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delaware | $6.431 | 8 of 13 | 4.1 % | 21 % |
| New York | $6.417 | 7 of 13 | 3.7 % | 17 % |
| New Jersey | $6.382 | 7 of 13 | 4.8 % | 21 % |
| Rhode Island | $6.380 | 7 of 13 | 4.0 % | 15 % |
| Maryland | $6.371 | 7 of 13 | 3.1 % | 17 % |
| Connecticut | $6.154 | 7 of 13 | 5.9 % | 23 % |
| Massachusetts | $6.115 | 7 of 13 | 6.4 % | 21 % |
| Vermont | $6.097 | 7 of 13 | 2.0 % | 19 % |
| Pennsylvania | $6.066 | 7 of 13 | 5.1 % | 17 % |
| Indiana | $6.053 | 5 of 13 | -2.6 % | 19 % |
| New Hampshire | $6.033 | 9 of 13 | 4.2 % | 21 % |
| Ohio | $6.031 | 7 of 13 | 1.3 % | 20 % |
| Maine | $6.026 | 7 of 13 | 5.7 % | 22 % |
| Virginia | $6.003 | 7 of 13 | 1.6 % | 14 % |
| Minnesota | $5.916 | 5 of 13 | -1.6 % | 17 % |
| Kentucky | $5.890 | 7 of 13 | 1.1 % | 18 % |
| North Carolina | $5.828 | 7 of 13 | 1.1 % | 14 % |
| Iowa | $5.817 | 5 of 13 | -3.7 % | 28 % |
| Michigan | $5.808 | 6 of 13 | -2.0 % | 20 % |
| Wisconsin | $5.786 | 5 of 13 | -4.7 % | 23 % |
| Nebraska | $5.630 | 4 of 13 | -3.2 % | 26 % |
The pattern is not even. Some winters, such as 2020-21, ran far above their October price; others, such as 2022-23, fell well below it. A median close to zero means the October price has been a fair guess on average; it says nothing about this winter.
Your dealer's offer against this winter
Locking 450 gallons of heating oil at $6.154
Saves $0
| Break-even winter price | $6.154 |
| Past winters where the November-March average beat the mid-October price | 7 of 13 |
| Median change, mid-October to winter average | +5.9 % |
| Past winters, replayed from today's price, that end above $6.154 | 7 of 13 |
How to read the result
The headline compares the locked price with this week's state average for all the gallons. That is the cost of locking today against buying at today's price all winter, a fair first check but not the real alternative, since the market will move. The replay table applies each past winter's change from mid-October to its November to March average to today's price, so it shows the range of winters you could get. The break-even price is the simplest test: if you think the winter will average above it, the lock pays.
Questions to ask before signing
- Is the price per gallon fixed for any quantity, or only for the gallons prepaid?
- What happens to unused prepaid gallons in April?
- Is there a fee, and is it refundable?
- Does the contract require automatic delivery, a service plan or a minimum purchase?
- How does the offered price compare with your state's line in the weekly table for the same week?
Gallons to commit
A contract for more gallons than you burn ties up money; one for fewer leaves you on the market for the rest. The winter budget gives your state's estimate for an average home, or uses your own gallons from last winter. The EIA's forecast for this winter, on the forecast page, is another reference point for the break-even price.