Your winter heating budget for oil or propane
The EIA expects an oil-heated home to spend $2,115 this winter on average; your state's weather and this week's price give your own figure.
Heating oil for the winter in Massachusetts, November to March
$2,777
454 gallons at $6.115/gal (EIA average home, scaled to Massachusetts's degree days).
| November: 65 gallons | $398 |
| December: 97 gallons | $594 |
| January: 113 gallons | $691 |
| February: 95 gallons | $581 |
| March: 84 gallons | $514 |
| At the EIA forecast winter price ($5.265, U.S.) | $2,391 |
Gallons follow Massachusetts's normal heating degree days (NOAA, 1981-2010). Normal winter. EIA weekly survey of October 19, 2026, excluding taxes. Next release October 28, 2026.
Compiled by Radif Partners · Where the prices come from · EIA weekly survey of October 19, 2026, excluding taxes · no dealer listed
A winter of heating oil costs the gallons your home burns from November to March times the price you pay. The EIA's Winter Fuels Outlook of October 2026 expects the average oil-heated household to burn 402 gallons in a normal winter and to spend $2,115 at a forecast average of $5.265 a gallon; propane households burn 494 gallons and spend $1,246. Those are national figures. The calculator scales them to your state with its normal heating degree days, the measure of how cold a winter is: Maine counts 5,958 from November to March, Virginia 3,669. At this week's state price, an average oil-heated home in Massachusetts would spend $2,777 this winter. Enter last winter's gallons from your delivery tickets and the estimate becomes your own home's.
How the estimate is built
Fuel use follows heating degree days: each degree that a day's mean temperature falls below 65 °F adds one. The EIA's outlook (Table WF01) gives, for each region, the gallons an average household burns and the degree days expected over the same five months. Dividing one by the other gives gallons per degree day. For heating oil, 82 % of the households are in the Northeast, so the rate is the U.S. household's gallons over the Northeast's degree days: 0.093 gallons per degree day. For propane, each region has its own row.
The rate is then multiplied by your state's normal November to March degree days from NOAA's population-weighted normals (NOAA CPC, 1981-2010). A warmer or colder winter applies the EIA's own scenarios. When you type your gallons from last winter, the calculator uses them instead.
| State | Degree days, Nov to Mar | Oil, average home | At this week's price | Propane, average home | At this week's price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maine | 5,958 | 553 gallons | $3,330 | 708 gallons | $2,628 |
| Massachusetts | 4,896 | 454 gallons | $2,777 | 582 gallons | $2,130 |
| New York | 4,837 | 449 gallons | $2,879 | 575 gallons | $2,144 |
| Pennsylvania | 4,566 | 423 gallons | $2,569 | 543 gallons | $1,717 |
| Maryland | 3,832 | 355 gallons | $2,264 | 692 gallons | $2,630 |
| Virginia | 3,669 | 340 gallons | $2,043 | 663 gallons | $2,493 |
| Ohio | 4,693 | 435 gallons | $2,625 | 627 gallons | $1,659 |
| Minnesota | 6,605 | 613 gallons | $3,624 | 882 gallons | $1,776 |
Month by month
A winter budget is not spread evenly. In a normal Pennsylvania winter, December, January and February bring 3,091 of the season's 4,566 degree days, January alone 1,135 against 666 in November; the calculator splits the season the same way, so you can see when the large bills fall. That timing matters for anyone on a budget plan, where the dealer spreads the estimated cost over equal monthly payments: the plan only works if the estimate is close.
Your winter, your gallons
Heating oil for the winter in New Hampshire, November to March
$3,164
| November: 77 gallons | $467 |
| December: 112 gallons | $675 |
| January: 129 gallons | $781 |
| February: 109 gallons | $659 |
Three ways the estimate can miss
- Your home is not the average. Size, insulation, the thermostat setting and whether the boiler also heats your water all move the gallons. Last winter's tickets fix this: enter the total and the calculator uses it.
- The winter is not normal. The EIA's colder scenario adds 8 % to oil use; the warmer one takes off 6 %. Switch the "Winter" choice to see both.
- The price moves. The budget uses this week's price for the whole season. The EIA forecasts $5.265 a gallon on average for heating oil this winter, against $6.190 in the survey this week. The calculator shows the cost at both.
Using the budget
Set the money aside by month, or compare it with your dealer's budget plan. If a fixed-price contract is on offer, the gallons of this page are the ones to commit: the lock-in calculator takes them from here. If the total is beyond reach, check the LIHEAP income ceiling of your state: the federal program helps with heating bills for households under it.